Thesis Completion Rates Statistics by University: 2026 Data Roundup

Thesis completion rates statistics by university reveal one of higher education’s most persistent challenges: fewer students finish advanced degrees than enrolment figures suggest. Across doctoral programs in the United States and the United Kingdom, completion rates for graduate students range from below 40% to above 85%, depending on the institution, discipline, and decade of entry. Understanding why so many students stall — and which universities perform best — is essential for anyone planning or currently navigating postgraduate study.

This data roundup aggregates the most current published figures from the National Science Foundation, Duke University’s Graduate School, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, Inside Higher Ed, and independent peer-reviewed analyses. All figures are updated for 2026 where available, with earlier trend data included for context.

Key Findings at a Glance

Before diving into granular breakdowns, here are the headline numbers drawn from the most authoritative sources available as of 2026:

• Approximately 43–45% of doctoral students in the US never complete their degree, according to Statistics Solutions’ longitudinal analysis of NSF Survey of Earned Doctorates data.
• The average 10-year PhD completion rate across US research universities is approximately 56.6%.
• In Texas (one of the most comprehensively tracked state systems), graduate student completion within six years rose from 58% (2003–04 cohort) to 68% (2012–13 cohort) — a 10-percentage-point gain in a decade.
• At the master’s thesis level, one European department study tracking 2010–2017 cohorts found a 43% non-completion rate for thesis projects specifically.
• Law and health professional programs have median completion rates exceeding 80%, while education and family/consumer science programs see rates as low as 55%.

National Completion Rate Data (US)

The most comprehensive longitudinal source for US doctoral completion is the NSF’s Survey of Earned Doctorates (SED), supplemented by the Council of Graduate Schools’ PhD Completion Project. Together they track multi-year cohorts across hundreds of institutions.

These figures mask large inter-institutional variance. Elite research universities with strong funding pipelines and structured mentorship tend to perform considerably better than underfunded regional programs. The NSF’s 2024 Survey of Earned Doctorates confirms that doctoral completion has been on a modest but consistent upward trend since 2010.

Completion Rates by Academic Discipline

Discipline is arguably the strongest predictor of whether a student will complete their thesis. The data consistently show a two-tier structure: STEM and professional fields complete at higher rates; humanities and social sciences lag significantly.

These figures draw from ResearchGate’s dataset of mean completion rates across selected disciplines and the CGS PhD Completion Project’s multi-institution findings. The gap between law/health and humanities has remained stubborn over two decades, reflecting structural differences in funding, supervision norms, and the clarity of degree milestones rather than student quality.

University-Level Statistics

Individual universities increasingly publish their own longitudinal data, partly in response to accountability pressures and partly to aid prospective students. Duke University’s Graduate School publishes annual cohort-level statistics that offer one of the most transparent university-level datasets publicly available.

The Duke Graduate School’s all-departments statistics page provides one of the clearest per-department breakdowns at a research-intensive university. Prospective students are encouraged to request similar data from any program they are considering — most accredited programs are required to provide it on request.

UK Thesis Completion Data

The United Kingdom operates a slightly different doctoral system, with most PhD programs running on a nominal 3-to-4-year timeline (compared to 5–7 in the US). The Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) tracks submission and completion rates, though headline figures are less frequently published at the discipline level than in the US.

• UK PhD submission rates within four years of enrolment typically run between 70% and 80% at research-intensive Russell Group universities.
• The Research Excellence Framework (REF) indirectly pressures universities to improve completion timelines, as submitted work must meet quality thresholds.
• A 2025 Tandfonline study benchmarking retention, progression, and graduation rates across undergraduate higher education confirmed that institutional support structures — not student characteristics alone — drive completion variance.
• UK government funding rules for Research Councils stipulate that institutions with PhD submission rates below 70% within four years face funding penalties, creating institutional incentive for improvement.

Master’s vs PhD Completion Rates

The distinction between master’s and doctoral completion matters because they represent very different stages of academic commitment and financial investment.

Master’s programs with thesis requirements have their own distinct attrition profile. A Springer Nature study examining learning analytics and machine learning to identify factors behind thesis completion and non-completion found that the drop-off point is concentrated in the early writing phase, when students transition from coursework to independent research. Students who struggled to define their research question within the first semester had significantly higher non-completion rates.

If you are currently navigating the writing phase, resources on how to write a thesis introduction step by step can help you build momentum before the drop-off window.

Completion Rate Trends Over Time

The data from Inside Higher Ed and the NSF consistently points in one direction: completion rates have been rising, slowly but measurably, since the mid-2000s. Several explanations for this trend have been proposed:

1. Improved structured mentorship programs: Many universities now require formal supervisory plans and milestone checkpoints that catch struggling students earlier.
2. Cohort-based training: Programs that move students through structured cohorts show higher completion rates than self-paced individual study models.
3. Funding improvements: Increased stipend levels and multi-year funding guarantees in STEM fields reduce the financial precarity that drives withdrawal.
4. Mental health support: Growing institutional investment in graduate student counselling services has helped address the mental health pressures associated with thesis writing.
5. Digital writing tools: The rise of AI-assisted writing tools has reduced the paralysis of the blank page. Platforms like Tesify Write allow students to structure and draft thesis chapters more efficiently, reducing time-to-first-draft.

The Inside Higher Ed 2024 report confirms the upward trend while noting that variation by discipline remains the dominant feature of the data.

Why Students Don’t Complete

Understanding the causes of non-completion is as important as tracking the rates. The CGS PhD Completion Project identifies several major drivers:

The supervisory relationship is the single most documented factor in non-completion. Research published at Springer confirms that students who report a poor relationship with their principal supervisor are significantly more likely to withdraw at all stages of the thesis process, particularly during the writing phase.

Writing block — the persistent inability to draft and submit chapters — is under-reported but increasingly recognised. Many universities now offer writing retreats, thesis boot camps, and structured accountability programs. See also the data on average time to complete a thesis by degree level for context on how long peers typically spend on each stage.

How Students Can Improve Their Odds

The data suggest several evidence-backed strategies for students who want to be on the right side of these statistics:

1. Choose your supervisor carefully. The CGS data is unambiguous: advisor relationship quality is the strongest modifiable predictor of completion. Meet with multiple potential supervisors before committing.
2. Set structured milestones early. Programs with formal yearly review panels have consistently better completion rates than those without. If your program lacks them, create your own.
3. Write from day one. The Springer learning analytics study found that students who began writing earlier in their program — even rough notes — had substantially lower non-completion rates. Resources like how to write a thesis conclusion with examples can help demystify the end goal even at the start of a program.
4. Use writing support tools. AI thesis writing tools have become a legitimate productivity resource. Platforms built specifically for academic writing, such as Tesify Write, can generate structured chapter outlines, help you overcome blank-page paralysis, and ensure your writing maintains academic register throughout.
5. Monitor your mental health proactively. Given that ~30% of non-completers cite mental health challenges as a factor, early intervention through university counselling services is one of the highest-leverage actions available.

For a deeper look at how AI tools are changing the thesis writing experience, see our article on what is the best AI tool for writing a thesis in 2026.

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